Intuitive decision making theory

Intuition is based on the implicit knowledge available to the decision-maker. For example, owning a dog as a child imbues someone with implicit knowledge about canine behavior, which may then be channeled into a decision-making process as the emotion of fear or anxiety before taking a certain kind of action around an angry dog. Intuition is the mechanism by which this implicit knowledge is brought to the forefront of the decision-making process. A month spent pondering a math problem may lead to a gradual understanding of the answer, even if one does not know where that understanding came from.

Intuitive decision making theory

Despite the welter of data and analytics at their disposal, experienced managers often need to rely on gut instinct to make complex decisions under duress.

And yet people continue to feel — intuitively, if you will — that this is an oversimplification. Consider three brief examples.

Intuitive decision making theory

In the game of chess, it appears that grandmasters are carefully thinking through every possible move and countermove. Science, with its often practical outcome — a new drug or technology — is closer to business than chess.

Further, scientists themselves often address the importance of intuition to their work. Consider the comments of Anton Zeilinger, professor of experimental physics at the University of Vienna and the leader of research groups that have made breakthrough discoveries in quantum teleportation and quantum cryptography: After turning the company around in the first two years of his tenure, he made a leap that most observers — both inside and outside the company — thought was more or less crazy.

To take KTM, a leader in the manufacture of off-road motorcycles, into the world of street motorcycles, a completely different business and one in which the company had no expertise.

What do we mean when we talk about intuition?

And it did lead to success. For Pierer, intuition is critical to effective decision making: I wake up in the night and have the feeling that I should do it differently after all.

But few are successful CEOs or chess grandmasters. What separates those people from the average? Go back to chess for a moment.

Intuitive decision making theory

A grandmaster may play up to 50 games at once, making rapid-fire decisions as he moves from board to board. Even in tournaments against other top competitors, grand-masters normally make a decision about where to move within a few seconds.

They spend the remainder of their allotted time thinking the move through and considering whether it is the right one. In such a complex game, how is it possible to make the right decision within seconds?

Inexperienced chess players were given a few seconds to examine the positions of 25 pieces, arranged as they might be midway through a normal game. When asked after an interval to reposition the pieces, they located on average only six of the original positions.

A chess master, however, correctly replaced all 25 pieces. But a second part of the experiment tells a different story. When the 25 pieces were placed on the board randomly, novice players again positioned six pieces correctly — and so did the masters.

A chess master sees a pattern behind potential configurations of the game. According to one estimate, a professional player can recognize about 50, configurations. But if the pieces are positioned in ways that make no sense according to the rules of the game, he will be unable to detect a pattern, and his results will be no different from those of a novice.

This is an especially important trait for complex decisions. And this brings us back to the development of intuition in high-level managers. Intuition and the Senior Executive Intuition, then, needs some rescuing from its detractors.

It is not a magical sixth sense or a paranormal process; nor does it signify either random and whimsical decision making or the opposite of reason.The Recognition Primed Decision Model, developed by Gary Klein and others, suggests that recognition of patterns or cues is an important element of intuitive decision making, along with an ability to perform a rapid mental simulation of how an option would perform against other previously successful outcomes.

Intuitive decision-making can be contrasted with deliberative decision-making, which is based on cognitive factors like beliefs, arguments, and reasons, commonly referred to as one's explicit knowledge. This decision-making process may follow an intuitive-humanistic decision-making model.

The author most connected with developing the intuitive model and the distinction between theoretical knowledge and experiential knowledge in the discipline of nursing is Patricia Benner (Thompson, ). The theory of intuitive decision-making in nursing was developed through the use of theory synthesis (Walker & Avant, ) and empirical evidence derived from inductive and deductive reasoning were incorporated in this process.

In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of . For Kasparov, who claims to be able to think up to 15 moves in advance, “intuition is the defining quality of a great chess player.” Of course, business is not a game, and much more is at stake when an executive makes a decision that will affect an entire company.

Intuition and decision-making - Wikipedia